By the end of 2024, the sum depreciated against the US dollar by 4.5%. A year earlier, the depreciation was almost 10%. Experts surveyed in late December do not expect sharp exchange rate fluctuations in 2025, but allow for continued gradual weakening of the national currency.

What influenced the exchange rate in 2024

Nuriddin Lafizov, head of Alif in Uzbekistan, named the increase in the real effective exchange rate (REER) to 106% by November 2024 as a key factor, with the optimal level at 100%. This indicates sum overvaluation. The reason lies in the weakening of trading partners' currencies: the Russian ruble, Kazakh tenge, Chinese yuan, and Turkish lira. This increased the burden on exporters and widened the trade deficit.

Ivan Orlov, analyst at Satori IB Group, presented data: tenge weakened against the dollar by 14% over the year, ruble by more than 15%. According to him, the sum's moderate depreciation is partly explained by a low base from the previous year. Shodibek Kenzhaev, senior analyst at Kap Depo, added to the factors increased currency demand in the first quarter and higher external debt payments. Exchange rate stability was supported by attracting eurobonds worth $1.5 billion.

Reserves and the Central Bank's role

Gold and foreign exchange reserves increased from $35 billion on January 1, 2024 to $41 billion on December 1, 2024. Orlov noted that in 2022–2023, the CB actively used currency interventions from reserves. In August 2023, the regulator depreciated the sum by 3.8%, and in 2024, no such steps were taken until year-end.

Kenzhaev pointed out that the change in CB leadership and the appointment of Timur Ishmetov may have future implications: in his assessment, the emphasis on slowing inflation and the role of the private sector supports confidence in macroeconomic stability.

Forecasts for 2025

  • Lafizov: in early 2025, the rate may cross 13,000 sum per dollar, by year-end it could reach 13,700–13,800 sum.
  • Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economics, according to Orlov: average annual rate of 13,350 sum per dollar, implying 4.8% year-on-year depreciation.
  • Kenzhaev: average annual rate of 13,300 sum, by year-end 2025 — 13,450 sum.

Among the risks, experts mention external shocks, particularly instability in the CIS. Currency support can come from export growth and foreign currency inflows, as well as stabilization of partner countries' currencies.

What this means for depositors

According to Orlov, depreciation is typical for developing countries, and for individuals it is partially offset by high rates on sum deposits. According to CB data, in November 2024 the average rate on sum deposits for individuals was 22.1%, significantly higher than annual depreciation.