Fitch Ratings is not yet ready to assert that Uzbekistan will achieve investment-grade credit rating by 2030. On October 27, at the Fitch on Uzbekistan conference, Sagarika Chandra, Director of Sovereign Ratings for the Asia-Pacific region, made this statement. To move closer to this level, the country needs to continue structural reforms, maintain high economic growth rates, and achieve sustainable improvement in public finances.

Current rating level

Uzbekistan's sovereign rating from Fitch is at BB level with a "positive" outlook. To obtain the minimum investment-grade rating of BBB–, the country needs to move up two notches: first to BB+, then to BBB–. According to Chandra, in 2026 the agency changed the outlook to "positive". Such an outlook typically has a 18–24 month horizon. The next step could be an upgrade to BB+ if conditions specified in Fitch's press release are met. A positive outlook does not guarantee an automatic upgrade.

Achieving investment-grade rating by 2030 is a strategic goal for Uzbekistan. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced it on June 10, 2025 at the IV Tashkent International Investment Forum and linked it to improving conditions for foreign investors, equal treatment for local and foreign companies, simplifying business interaction with government bodies, and investment protection.

What the agency considers

  • Macroeconomics. Fitch expects continued reforms and strong growth rates, as well as the ability to manage risks, including external ones. The agency already sees improving economic resilience but must be convinced the momentum will persist long-term.
  • Public finances. Uzbekistan's public debt is significantly below the median for BB-rated countries. However, the agency would like to see more sustainable improvement in budget indicators, including revenues, and keeping the deficit under control as spending grows.
  • Public sector. A large public sector creates contingent liability risks—obligations of companies that may require budget support if circumstances deteriorate. These risks are factored into creditworthiness assessments.

Could it happen faster

Chandra did not give a definitive timeline forecast. According to her, Fitch is not limited by the conditions named for rating actions: if actual results significantly exceed the agency's baseline scenario, further upgrades are possible. The reverse is also true: in case of a serious shock, the rating may need to be revised. The agency cannot yet quantify the probability of such a scenario or specify timing.

Earlier it was reported that Fitch factored in a decline in gold prices from $4,500 per troy ounce in 2026 to $2,700 by 2029. Senior Director of the agency Yulia Buchneva noted that this should not automatically worsen credit ratings of Uzbekistan's mining companies.