International agency Fitch Ratings admits that the privatization of Uzbekistan's state banks may be delayed: the sale of one bank in 2027 is possible, but this is not a certain scenario. This was stated by Pavel Kaptel, director of the agency's banking sector in Uzbekistan, at the Fitch on Uzbekistan conference on October 27.

Timeline and government plans

In early 2026, authorities revised the privatization timeline. According to the updated Strategy "Uzbekistan — 2030", no sales of state banks are planned this year; the process should begin in 2027. By 2030, the number of state banks is planned to be reduced from nine to four, with five transferred to private investors.

"We certainly believe that the sale of one bank is possible next year, but we do not consider this a definite scenario at this moment," said Kaptel.

According to him, pre-sale preparation may take longer, and the deal could be postponed. Fitch considers Uzpromstroybank (SQB), which has advanced in transforming its business model, as the main candidate for the first sale.

Which banks are being prepared for sale

Authorities have focused on two major banks — SQB and Asaka Bank. Together they account for approximately 17% of banking system assets. Fitch highlights two changes in preparation: revised timeline and concentration of efforts on these two banks.

  • In the case of SQB, Uzbekistan's National Investment Fund (UzNIF) is involved, managed by Franklin Templeton.
  • EBRD participation is planned in Asaka Bank's capital. According to the presidential decree of April 20, 2026, it will acquire 15% of the bank's shares as part of transformation and privatization preparation.

Kaptel noted that involving such players improves medium-term prospects for selling both banks. According to the agency's assessment, successful privatization could significantly change the structure of the banking sector and positively impact the assessment of the operating environment.

What hinders deals

One of the key obstacles remains old problematic loans. In recent years, authorities and banks have improved asset quality: banks were provided with additional capital, and some old problem loans were written off.

At the same time, in banks undergoing transformation, the share of recognized problem loans has slightly increased. Fitch does not believe this necessarily indicates deteriorating portfolio quality: the dynamics are partly due to the transition to stricter loan classification rules and reserve formation.

Earlier, Sagarika Chandra, director of Fitch's sovereign ratings group for the Asia-Pacific region, noted that for an investment-grade credit rating, Uzbekistan needs to continue structural reforms, maintain high growth rates, and improve public finances. Risks associated with a large public sector are taken into account when assessing the country's creditworthiness.