The Central Bank of Uzbekistan does not set target values or «corridors» for the som exchange rate. This was stated by First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Nodirbek Achilov during a dialogue with exporters. According to him, the exchange rate is considered an exogenous variable, and the main focus of monetary policy is inflation targeting.

Inflation and exchange rate in 2025

In 2025, the som strengthened against the dollar by 6.9%. According to the plan, inflation should reach 6.5% by the end of 2025 and about 5% by the end of 2027.

The average exchange rate in 2025 was 12,575 som against 12,653 som in 2024. The difference is 78 som, or 0.6%. According to Achilov, this indicator is important for exporters and importers and was used in GDP calculations.

Factors affecting the foreign exchange market

  • External debt. According to the budget, $5 billion will be supplied directly to the market this year: $2.5 billion to support the budget and $2.5 billion for investment projects.
  • Migrant remittances. In 2025, about $19 billion was received, 65% of which came from Russia. Ruble strengthening increases migrants' dollar-equivalent income and currency supply in the country.
  • Gold. One of the key export commodities; price increases affect the volume of payments to gold miners and Central Bank operations.

Currency supply growing faster than demand

Compared to 2024, currency supply increased by 30%, while demand increased by 25%. Market participants include individuals and legal entities, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the Reconstruction and Development Fund. The main factor shaping the exchange rate was growth in currency sales by individuals and legal entities.

Request to the IMF

Achilov clarified IMF criteria: if over six months the exchange rate exceeds the 4% corridor (±2%), the regime is considered floating; if it remains within — managed floating; fluctuations within 1% mean a fixed rate. In 2025, the exchange rate rose 429 som and fell 694 som relative to the average of 12,575, with average fluctuation corridor about 9%.

During the IMF mission expected in April, the Central Bank intends to request Uzbekistan's exchange rate status be changed to «floating».

Hedging company

The Central Bank is working with international organizations and consultants to establish a hedging company. A conceptual document will be prepared this year, and a draft law on legislative amendments is being developed. After its adoption in the second half of the year, the Central Bank will issue recommendations for creating such a company.