Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated on September 10 that bitcoin has reached the low point of the current cycle and will grow over the next one to two years.

He called the target level of $400,000 by 2030 a "reasonable goal" — while at the time of his comments the asset was trading around $77,000–78,000.

What the forecast is based on

Armstrong refers to the historically observed four-year cycle. According to him, the current downturn period has lasted about a year, which aligns with previous patterns.

"I personally believe bitcoin has bottomed in this cycle," he said, noting the asset's recovery from around $60,000.

Reaching the stated level would mean a fivefold increase in just over three years. At the time of the statement, the price was approximately 38% below the all-time high of around $126,000.

What the data shows

Analytics firm Glassnode recorded on September 9 that bitcoin rose 23% over 21 trading sessions, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices remained virtually unchanged for the same period.

Selling pressure eased as the price approached the resistance zone of $83,000–86,000: the weekly seller risk indicator was 7 basis points per day versus 16 at the August peak.

Important context

The forecast came amid a difficult period for the company itself: Coinbase cut 14% of its workforce and missed profit expectations in Q2 2026 due to declining trading activity.

This should be considered when reading: the exchange's CEO has a vested interest in market growth, which directly impacts his business revenue.

Focus on other areas

Armstrong noted a 700% year-over-year growth in stablecoin payments on the Base network and cited market forecasts for the stablecoin market reaching $3 trillion by 2030.

He identified payments, tokenization, prediction markets, and agentic finance as key directions for 2027.

Regulatory forecast fell short

Armstrong predicted that the CLARITY Act vote on September 15 would likely pass successfully, citing conversations in Washington.

As it turned out, the bill was rejected with a vote of 49–50.

However, his second assessment remains relevant: the failure won't significantly delay regulatory clarity, as the SEC and CFTC are prepared to publish rules under their existing authorities.

This episode serves as a reminder: even leaders of major industry companies make mistakes in political forecasts.

This material is for informational purposes and is not an investment recommendation.