Bitcoin on September 14 returned above the $79,000 mark amid signals of a possible resolution to the conflict between the USA and Iran. The gain was about 3% for the day and fully offset weekend losses.

What was announced in Washington

The US President stated on social media that Iran "wants to make a deal — quickly and strongly," and that the American side is open to negotiations. In a subsequent message, he suggested that oil prices would "plummet sharply" after the military conflict ends.

Oil quotations briefly declined, then stabilized: American WTI held above $100 per barrel, Brent traded around $105.

American stock indices opened with gains but then turned negative — S&P 500 declined by 0.3% due to ongoing uncertainty around key oil transportation routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

Market has largely priced in a rate hike

Market participants decisively shifted toward expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the meeting on September 17.

According to CME Group data, the probability of a 25 basis point increase to 3.75–4% was estimated at 92.7% versus 59.4% a week earlier — that is, expectations changed dramatically over seven days.

Oil as a source of difficulty for regulators

Trading company QCP Capital warned: persistently high energy prices complicate the central bank's task.

Expensive oil translates into transportation and logistics costs, raising inflation expectations and limiting the ability to pause tightening — even if overall economic statistics weaken.

"This dynamic creates policy tension: sustained energy prices may keep the Fed in tightening mode, while economic weakness from those same prices calls for patience," analysts note.

What matters more than the rate decision

Since a rate hike is already widely expected, market focus has shifted to policymakers' language and signals about future policy direction.

The muted reaction to recent inflation data confirmed that regulator rhetoric now matters more than the rate change itself.

Technical level

The asset reclaimed the 50-week exponential moving average at $77,430 after closing the previous week below it. This level is considered key support for confirming an uptrend.

For the overall market, the episode is telling: price movement was driven not by internal crypto industry factors, but by geopolitics and expectations regarding US monetary policy.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.