Inflation expectations among the population of Uzbekistan have hit a new all-time low once again. This is reported by the Central Bank based on the results of the August survey.

What the survey showed

The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months was 9.8% — 0.3 percentage points lower than June and July figures.

The median indicator, after rising the previous month, returned to 8%.

Why median is more important than average

The gap between the two values — nearly two percentage points — is informative in itself.

The arithmetic mean is sensitive to extreme estimates: several respondents expecting price increases of 30–40% notably raise the overall figure. The median reflects the opinion of a "typical" survey participant.

The gap indicates that most expect moderate price growth, but there is a group with significantly more pessimistic views.

Regional breakdown

Highest expectations:

  • Fergana Region — 11.7%;
  • Tashkent — 11.4%;
  • Surkhondarya — 10.9%.

Lowest expectations:

  • Jizzakh — 8.1%;
  • Khorezm — 8.4%;
  • Navoi and Bukhara — 8.6% each.

The difference between extreme regions exceeds 3.5 percentage points. Capital expectations are traditionally higher — reflecting higher cost of living and consumption patterns.

Why the regulator monitors this indicator

Inflation expectations are not just sentiment. They influence actual pricing: an entrepreneur expecting rising costs builds this into prices in advance, and workers demand wage indexation ahead of time.

That is why the Central Bank noted at its September meeting: expectations are falling slower than overall inflation, indicating persistence of pricing inertia.

Key discrepancy

Comparing the two figures is telling: actual annual inflation in August was 6.2%, while the population expects 9.8% over the next year.

A gap of three and a half points means confidence in sustained disinflation has not yet fully formed.

This is one reason the regulator maintains the base rate at 14% and is not shifting toward easing policy.

What this means for savings

For depositors, the situation is favorable: at 14% and actual inflation of 6.2%, real returns on som-denominated instruments remain high.

Even accounting for expected 9.8% rather than actual inflation, the gap stays positive. Comparing deposit rates makes sense with inflation adjustment rather than nominal rates.

This material is for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice.