The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan released fresh statistical data on the state of the deposit market for June. Against the backdrop of general macroeconomic changes, the yield on savings accounts of individuals in national currency recorded record low indicators.
According to the regulator's report, the weighted average interest rate on sum deposits of the population fell to 19.2% per annum, which became the lowest value since March 2021. Over the past month, this indicator decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and on an annual basis, the decline amounted to 2.1 points. Short-term instruments declined most noticeably: the yield on individual deposits with a term of up to one year fell to 16.6%, while for long-term obligations, banks on average offered 19.6% per annum.
Dynamics of the corporate sector and general yield indicators
Unlike the retail segment, the average nominal rate on all deposits in national currency (including business funds) in June showed local growth, rising to 17.6% per annum compared to 15.3% for legal entities. This was facilitated by a notable increase in the yield of short-term corporate instruments to 14.8%.
Despite the decline in nominal interest rates for citizens, the real yield on sum savings of the population (calculated net of inflation expectations) remained in the green zone at 8.3%. This indicator even exceeds the results of the same period last year by 1.1 percentage points.
The situation in the foreign currency deposits segment
On the foreign currency market, after a May spike to 5.5% per annum, a correction was recorded: average rates on foreign currency deposits fell to 4.5%. The decline mainly affected short-term corporate programs, whose yield collapsed from 5.5% to 3.1%. At the same time, retail investors hardly felt any changes — the average yield of foreign currency deposits for individuals remained stable at 5.3% per annum.
Tax initiatives and expert opinion
An additional factor in discussions around the banking sector was a proposal from the Institute of Fiscal Analysis under the Ministry of Economy and Finance. The ministry put forward an initiative to introduce a 5 percent tax on income of individuals received from bank deposits. According to preliminary calculations, this fiscal measure could replenish the state budget by 1.4 trillion sums annually.
However, independent economists and financial analysts express serious concerns about this reform. In the opinion of experts, forced taxation of interest can undermine the trust of citizens in commercial banks that has been building for years. This risks triggering capital outflows from the banking system and stimulating the flow of free cash funds of the population into alternative protective assets: foreign currency, real estate, and investment gold.